Header Ads

When and How Will COVID-19 End?

Newsletter cover image

If you’re staying shut in your home, anxious about when you will finally be able to take a stroll outside or whether you or someone close to you will be infected by the novel coronavirus, you are not the only one. In the U.S. alone, half of the adults report high levels of anxiety due to the COVID-19, according to the American Psychiatric association. The ongoing pandemic is exerting the whole world both physically and mentally. One thing is sure to be asked by everyone: when will all this be over and when will COVID-19 end?
Some think that things will never get back to normal. Acclaimed sci-fi writer Ted Chiang says that “we don’t want everything to go back to business as usual,
business as usual is what led us to this crisis”.
In this article, we explore sc
enarios about how COVID-19 will give us some rest and when it could happen. Getting a definite answer for these might be impossible. It will largely depend on actions from every level: scientists, governments and the general public, and how well we adhere to these. These vary from country to country, but with the help of technology, we can find answers for this public health crisis.

Monitoring data from home

In order to have an approximation of when one can see the light at the end of the coronavirus tunnel, people have been keeping track of the number of cases, which only keeps increasing. Online interactive dashboards like those from Johns Hopkins University and Microsoft are effective ways to keep track of the spread. These show, among other data, the cumulative confirmed cases, recoveries and deaths, all of which will keep piling up.
However, another way to visualize the direction we’re heading is via graphs plotting growth rate against cumulative cases on a logarithmic scale, rather than either of these plotted against time. This method can give an insight about detectable progress. By plugging in data gathered from trusted sources by Johns Hopkins University, physicists Aatish Bhatia in collaboration with Henry Reich from Minute Physics made such an interactive graph for all countries. 

It greatly helps understand whether the exponential growth of COVID-19’s spread is coming to an end. What it shows is that the disease is spreading similarly everywhere. It also shows when a country is recovering, like China and South Korea, the graph plummets down. You can track the graph adapted to your own country and observe the trend to see when you can catch a breather.

Countdown to a vaccine

With social distancing measures and an eventual vaccine, COVID-19 will turn into a thing of the past. However, a vaccine will take at least a year before being publicly available even if COVID-19 is breaking records in vaccine development. But the tireless efforts of scientists will pay off.
No alt text provided for this image
Source: www.worldbigroup.com
Moderna and the National Institutes of Health have already sent a vaccine candidate into early clinical testing. “It’s overwhelmingly the world record,” said Dr. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and a member of the White House coronavirus task force.
But a publicly available version will take more time. It has to go through more testing for efficacy, side-effects and large scale production. Other companies and scientists are also working on other candidates to serve as a backup or more effective solution.

Data and network science for the cure

Working towards the same goal are data scientists who are lending a helping hand. They are using A.I.-based techniques to screen for potential drugs, forecast patient prognosis and help in diagnosis. Google’s DeepMind machine learning algorithm predicted protein structures associated with COVID-19. The results can help researchers work towards a vaccine. Other researchers fed data to an algorithm topredict the virus’ spread for the next 30 days or more. These are some of the expanding examples where data and machine learning approaches are joining the fight.
No alt text provided for this image
Another interesting area aiding the cause is network science, the interdisciplinary research field studying the connections between entities. The BarabasiLab repurposed its Network Medicine toolset, developed in the past decade, to help find a treatment for COVID-19. The team will do so by studying the viral proteins’ interactions with human ones and freely share their results as they emerge.
With such endeavours, it’s not a matter of if we will get a vaccine; it’s a matter of when we will get it. And for the case of the novel coronavirus, we’re on the fast track.

When will COVID-19 end? Three scenarios

To visualize how the anticipated end of COVID-19 can unfold, we analyze three scenarios below. Of course, other developments can influence these scenarios, leading to different outcomes. However, the following gives a general trajectory of where we can be headed.

When will COVID-19 end? - Scenario #1

In the most optimistic case, we could follow the Far East’s path. China’s swift and strict lockdowns led to the cases of new infections to plummet by March, according to official reports. South Korea had a success story thanks in part to surveillance, with individual bank transactions and phone use tracked to identify those infected. Such stringent measures might not be applicable everywhere; but drastic measures are effective to curb the spread as shown by an analysis from the Imperial College London. With these in place, we could bring the pandemic under control and gradually resume economic activity by the middle of the year. 
No alt text provided for this image

When will COVID-19 end? - Scenario #2

The second, most likely scenario, could follow the trajectory most countries are following; enforcing lockdowns and reducing social contact while tracking those infected. However, many countries adopted such measures late or even downplayed the severity of the virus. The U.S. wanted to ease its lockdown, while the U. K. flirted with the idea of “herd immunity” but revisited this decision. Sweden, on the other hand, already put a similar concept into practice, with mild restrictions and no lockdowns, worrying local experts. We've seen how overwhelmed healthcare facilities are getting, with lack of proper equipment and jam-packed wards due to the uncontrolled spread of the contagion. Even those countries that contained the spread could face a second wave of infections if restrictions are lifted too early. This will lead to even more severe lockdowns and have us battle with COVID-19 the majority of the year.
No alt text provided for this image
Source: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/

When will COVID-19 end? - Scenario #3

Lastly, we have the worst case scenario and thankfully, the least likely one. The virus could brave through summer and thrive again in winter, leading to subsequent outbreaks. The overburdened healthcare systems around the world would crumble; mortality rate would shoot to 8-10%; and we would be relegated to wait for an effective vaccine.
No alt text provided for this image
Source: https://www.bing.com/covid

What will definitely happen

While we can speculate on what will happen and wait to see the rest, certain aspects of the current situation will surely linger post-COVID-19. We probably won’t go down the same route as Demolition Man when it comes to bodily fluids and physical contact, at least not any time soon, but changes to our ingrained habits are bound to happen.
Now that surveillance helped to track the novel coronavirus' spread in some countries, governments will enforce such measures under the guise of public health safety. Israel allowed its internal security agency to use phone location data in the pandemic; Singapore launched an opt-in version; and South Korea used data from CCTV footage, bank activity and phone use. These will raise new issues about privacy and ethics, as it already has in South Korea.
No alt text provided for this image
Source: https://www.nytimes.com/
Given the nature of COVID-19’s transmission, people around the world will take time to readjust to working as a “global community”. We will have doubts about traveling, commuting and even working next to each other. We’re already seeing symptoms of social anxiety and agoraphobia exacerbate due to the pandemic. It will take time to trust the world and its functioning.
One of the pandemic’s key terms, social distancing, will be a part of our lives in the coming months. The Imperial College London’s analysis already warns of “hundreds of thousands of deaths” without social distancing. Both as a preventive measure and as a new-formed habit, social distancing will prevail long after borders open.

A wake-up call

The COVID-19 experience will serve as a wake-up call to the severity of viral infections, increasing public health awareness. As a vaccine will take around a year to hit shelves, people will want to get those. Additionally, shots for the common flu will become more common.


Moreover, the most affected countries will have to rethink and redesign their healthcare systems. They will follow the example of countries like Germany, which adequately managed the pandemic. This can be attributed to a good supply chain, online data centers to reorganize supplies, strict measures about testing, professional and transparent communication. By adopting these measures, other countries can be better prepared for an eventual public health crisis.
No alt text provided for this image
Dr. Bertalan Mesko, PhD is The Medical Futurist and Director of The Medical Futurist Institute analyzing how science fiction technologies can become reality in medicine and healthcare. As a geek physician with a PhD in genomics, he is a keynote speaker and an Amazon Top 100 author.
Get access to exclusive content and analyses about the future of digital health on Patreon.com!
now someone who might be interested in this newsletter? Share it with them.
NEWSLETTER ON LINKEDIN Share this series on LinkedIn Share this series on FaceoobkShare this series on Twitter

No comments

Powered by Blogger.